Wind share in 2030 could be 11% or 20%, all depends on policy


In 2030 wind power’s share in global electricity demand could climb to 11%-12% or rise as high as 20% under several scenarios examined by the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC).

Wind capacity is seen to at least triple from 432.7 GW in 2015 to 1,260 GW by 2030. It is also possible to hit 2,110 GW by that same year in the most optimistic scenario, GWEC’s Advanced Scenario, where there is a strong international political commitment towards meeting climate goals and national energy policy is driven by the need for enhanced energy security, price stability, job creation and freshwater conservation.

Under the IEA New Policies Scenario (NSP) the global wind market returns to 2014 levels in 2016 and then decreases and stabilises at the 2010 market level after 2020, only growing very slightly from that level out to 2030. The IEA 450 Scenario also sees the market returning to 2014 levels in 2016, dipping to 2012 levels by 2018 and then recovering to 2014 levels by the end of the decade, reaching 2015 levels again in 2022/12.

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