MISSION CRITICAL: BUILDING THE GLOBAL WIND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5°C WORLD
The global wind energy supply chain is exposed to many internal and external challenging factors. This comes at a time when political momentum is growing to set a target for the tripling of renewable energy capacity by 2030, to support the delivery of 1.5°C scenarios which see wind energy as the backbone of a future power system.
This report outlines the status of the global wind supply chain under business-as-usual (BAU) and net zero scenarios for growth to 2030, investigates future macro geopolitical and economic outlooks impacting the supply chain, and presents the priorities for industry and policymakers to put the industry back on track to deliver on global decarbonisation goals.
- Annual installations for wind will need to scale up by 3x over the course of this decade to meet net zero benchmarks.
- Policy environments are not fit-for-purpose to incentivise deployment of wind energy at 1.5C levels, marked by stop-start government ambition and auctions, and bottlenecks in project permitting, land availability and grid buildout.
- The report models four macroeconomic scenarios to 2030 – Open Door, Increased Barriers, Economic Downturn and Global Escalation. Only the Open Door scenario, with a focus on open trade and the buildout of multiple price-competitive regions with backward integration of supply chains, delivers wind growth in line with net zero
- China has built up a scale-driven and backwards-integrated industry through steady market expansion. China has been the strongest example of a growing production wind hub. But while China holds 64% of the total value generated across the global wind supply chain, from mining to transport and installation, it will also install 58% of the expected new wind installations through 2025. Most of the value generated in USD terms by the Chinese supply chain is utilised for domestic installations.